When an individual receives an extreme diagnosis and treatment plan, they are usually encouraged to seek a second opinion. Then from an informed position, an informed decision can be made; consistent with RCW 7.70.060 regarding “informed consent.”
Governor Inslee has identified an extreme diagnosis and administered a treatment plan without informed consent or shared decision making. When he offered an alternative treatment plan from his couch weeks before Thanksgiving, he subsequently withdrew it.
The following is a series of resources I have assembled as a virtual second opinion to the diagnosis and treatment plan presented by Governor Inslee. Before we begin, it is my intent to be respectful to everyone who has died during this State of Emergency; each represents a real person, a unique and valuable individual. As I attempt to present Washington State and U.S. statistics in an objective manner, please know that I intend for this to honor each individual and family who contributed to these statistics by helping share information in a way that we may be informed and not operate from a place of fear or uncertainty, allowing our community to move forward together.
Graphic from CDC (U.S. Center for Disease Control) NCHS (National Health Statistics) “FluView” website. A graph of the combined mortality rate of influenza and pneumonia is shown in red. The mortality rate shown is the % of all deaths which are ue to PIC (pneumonia and influenza combined).
First, note how the beginning of the first spike in deaths recorded as COVID-19 (indicated by blue shading) matches the red line. Then as recording of COVID-19 deaths was modified, a white space appears, representing the portion of deaths attributed to pneumonia.
Now, look back and compare prior years white (pneumonia deaths). There is more blue (COVID-19) than yellow (flu), but since COVID-19 it appears that fewer deaths are being attributed to pneumonia than in recent years past.
Clearly, there is much more blue this year than yellow, and the red line spikes far above recent historical peaks, so COVID-19 appears worse than a bad flu year nationwide. But what about Washington?
Charts obtained from CDC FluView data archives available at https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html follow. First, a summary chart of the nation covering flu seasons from 2016 to the present. As with the first chart, the red line represents the PIC mortality rate. As can be seen by the shape of the curve, this data includes deaths recorded as COVID-19 consistent with that illustrated in the blue shading in the previous figure.
As these PIC mortality charts by CDC have been demonstrated to include COVID-19 deaths, next we will look at charts for State of Washington depicting our PIC mortality rates.
CDC graphs charting % of all deaths due to pneumonia and influenza (including COVID-19) for State of Washington are shown below.
The numbers on the bottom of the charts refer to weeks. The first State charts begin with the 2013-2014 flu season (white), then 2014-2015 flu season (gray), followed by the 2015-2016 flu season (white). The right gray panel of the first State graph and left white panel of the second state graph both represent the 2016-2017 flu season. Then in the right gray panel of the second State graph is the 2019-2020 flu season, including the peak of COVID-19 deaths in State of Washington.
Comparing the graph in 2019-2020 to that in 2014-2015, the PIC mortality rate looks very similar to that which we endured just 5 years ago. Accordingly, in State of Washington, this CDC data illustrates that the mortality rate with COVID-19 in State of Washington is similar to a bad flu year.
Kansas had some counties with a mask mandate and some without. Plotting KDHE (Kansas Department of Health and Environment) data comparing counties with/without mask mandates reveals that the number of new cases per day was higher in counties with a mask mandate (orange line) versus without (blue line).
Confidence in masks for public protection is not universally accepted. As reported in Foundation for Economic Education’s article at https://fee.org/articles/europes-top-health-officials-say-masks-arent-helpful-in-beating-covid-19/, “From a medical point of view, there is no evidence of a medical effect of wearing face masks, so we decided not to impose a national obligation,” said Medical Care Minister Tamara van Ark in Europe.
Some claim that because the deoxygenation observed in surgeons over age 35 wearing a medical mask for a prolonged period of time in the 2008 study (http://scielo.isciii.es/pdf/neuro/v19n2/3.pdf) was relatively minor (albeit remarkable), our bodies can tolerate masks today. However, consider the environment those physicians entered after their surgery was done. I would submit that we are all living under more stress and uncertainty now than those surgeons faced each day after they took the mask off over 10 years ago.
Today, our immune systems are inherently weakened given our current state of stress and lack of challenge from regular exposure to microbes. An article (https://www.herzing.edu/blog/5-ways-boost-your-immune-system-times-stress) summarizes 5 ways to boost your immune system: 1. Reduce stress. 2. Hang out with friends. 3. Eat and drink healthy. 4. Exercise. 5. Sleep. So in addition to oxygen deprivation, which is needed for a healthy immune system, each of these ways we could boost our immune system is under assault.
And if the intent is to stop the spread from asymptomatic carriers, a recently published report from ground zero of the pandemic addresses that misconception. Results of city-wide screening were published by Nature, Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China. The study found just 300 asymptomatic cases, and noted the following: “There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases.” Therefore, this PubMed referenced article indicates no risk of spread from asymptomatic individuals.
Conclusion: Masks are not necessarily effective or needed, and they are certainly not without risk.
The health department and media report a positive PCR test as a COVID case. We may assume that when cases go up, we are more likely to catch COVID. However, a positive PCR test does not mean the person is contagious.
“PCR results per se are unlikely to predict viral culture from human samples… PCR results may lead to restrictions for large groups of people who do not present an infection risk.” https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/
Bottomline: More positive PCR tests do not mean more people are contagious with COVID-19.
Recall the comparison of influenza and pneumonia mortality rates from the CDC charts which show State of Washington is effectively experiencing a bad flu year. From that perspective, any increased unemployment, any increased suicide, any increased domestic or child abuse, any increased DUI or overdose, could be attributed to Inslee’s actions. Where these actions were not taken 5 years ago during a comparably bad flu season, does that mean things would have been worse had Inslee not taken such drastic action? What if our response had followed the Great Barrington Declaration?
It is clear that the steep decline in the Reproduction Rate (Rt) happened naturally, before Inslee’s involvement. Then with the stress and resulting compromised immune systems from living through Inslee’s dictates, it’s no wonder that the Rt would rise after bad news, and fall when the chains were loosened.
Based on the Reproduction Rate, it is unclear that Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order resulted in Washingtonians actually staying healthy. What we can know is there have been negative impacts to adults, children, and families as a consequence of the lock-downs Inslee ordered.
And what about current measures? The chart below is drawn from State of Washington Department of Health data accessed November 15, 2020. Cases are charted in blue, each line represents 1,000 cases. Hospitalizations and Deaths are charted in red and green, respectively, with each line representing 100 persons.
When cases first peaked in March 2020, about 1 in 5 cases were hospitalized (20%). During the second peak of cases in the summer, that dropped to about 1 in 18 cases being hospitalized (5.6%). Data for early November shows hospitalizations are down to about 1 in 25 cases (4%).
When cases peaked in March, just under 1 in 10 cases resulted in death (8%). During the second peak of cases in the summer, that dropped to about 1 in 50 cases resulting in death (2%). Data for early November shows deaths are down to about 1 in 200 cases (0.05%).
What can we do this holiday season? Give thanks for the freedoms we do have and for the decreasing virulence of the virus. And take time to explore all sides of the issue and engage in meaningful interaction and conversation with others.
Reports of Moderna’s Phase 3 vaccine trial emphasize the extent to which individuals in the vaccine cohort were not found to have the virus. However, 14,910 individuals out of 15,000 who received the placebo remained virus-free. Accordingly, it could be said that the placebo was 99.4% effective!
With those results, we could save a lot of money and stress if we accepted the placebo is the cure!
Considering a 0.6% chance of becoming infected without receiving the vaccine, and the zero-percent chance of an asymptomatic person spreading the virus as addressed in Fact Check #2 above, the conclusion is clear.
More concerning is Dr. Igor Shepherd’s characterization of COVID vaccines as, “Biological weapons of mass destruction.” He is an expert on bio-weapons, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high-yield explosives (CBRNE) and pandemic preparedness who was born and raised in Soviet Union and became a Military Doctor in Russia. Before being placed on administrative leave after speaking out, Dr. Shepherd served as a medical doctor/manager for Wyoming’s State Public Health Department/Preparedness Unit, and on the COVID response team.
Without the vaccine, analysis of CDC data for total annual deaths in the United States, considering all causes combined, is on-par with prior years, as shown in the summary from an article by Brian Shilhavy of Health Impact News.
Shilhavy’s article echoes Yanni Gu’s report in the November 27, 2020 issue of News-Letter from The Johns Hopkins, which has since been retracted by JHU News-Letter. Gu’s report shared findings presented by Genevieve Briand, PhD, alumni and former assistant adjunct professor of WSU and now assistant program director of the Applied Economics masters degree program at Johns Hopkins University, who critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using CDC data in a webinar titled “COVID19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.” Briand found COVID-19 has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
Government authorities should stand for you and protect freedoms and liberties as endowed by our Creator and established in our constitutions.
Brian advocates professionally, promoting public welfare through application of science and engineering principles to protect people and their environment. Rather than rely upon the headline of a bill, Brian would read the text, endeavor to understand both sides of the issue, and consider the implications of implementing the subject legislation in order to make an informed decision.
Last year, Brian assisted Senator Marko Liias (D) in authoring amendments to new legislation known as the Greg “Gibby” Gibson Fire Safety Act.
Earlier this year, Brian successfully petitioned the State Building Code Council to reconsider amendments to state regulations. His position gained the written support of fire department code enforcement officials.
Representative Peterson says, “Black lives matter,” but voted earlier this year for facial recognition technology known to discriminate against blacks. This legislation was signed into law in March by Governor Inslee.
According to a December 2019 study by the Feds, facial recognition technology gives “false positives” for (read that “wrongly accuses”) individuals of African descent at 10- to 100-times the rate for whites (NISTIR 8280).
Also remarkable, particularly considering local efforts to honor the Salish people as indigenous inhabitants of this land, when evaluating the law enforcement database in that same study the highest rate of false positives involved American Indians. The law enforcement database also yielded elevated rates of false positives for African American and Asian populations. If we don’t want law enforcement to unfairly target minorities, why did Strom vote to pass legislation to allow technology prone to wrongly identifying minority individuals!?
Additionally, concerns exist over how the data is stored and protected. One way to regulate it would be to just say “No” — that’s what California did! And after investigation by Canadian privacy protection authorities, a US-based software company ceased offering its facial recognition services throughout the entire nation of Canada. If it’s not good enough for California or the entire country of Canada, we should not be the guinea pigs. Brian will work to stop the intrusion of facial recognition technology, protecting your privacy and helping ensure racial equality.
In the current session, our legislative and executive branches have infringed upon our medical freedom. Religious freedom is protected under Article 1 Section 11 of our State Constitution, with the exception of “practices inconsistent with the peace and safety of the state.” Medical freedom should be similarly respected. Brian believes Washingtonians should be free to make individual health decisions, including what treatments they pursue or procedures from which they abstain, and work to expand health insurance options available to businesses and individuals.
With regard to managing freedoms amidst the current pandemic, Brian supports focused protection. To this end, together with infectious disease epidemiologists, public health scientists, and medical practitioners, Brian is a signatory to the Great Barrington Declaration.
FIRE: The wildfire smoke this summer was a reminder of how the State’s investment in our forests is literally going up in smoke. We have an opportunity to realize some revenue by responsibly harvesting our forests. This has the added benefit of reducing the intensity of subsequent wildfire seasons. Commissioner of Public Lands candidate Sue Kuehl Pederson’s blog includes an entry on this issue. Additional history and perspective regarding the condition of our forests is presented in a TEDx talk by Paul Hessburg.
WATER: This summer, a federal court case confirmed a neurotoxic risk from fluoridation of our drinking water, as described by Dr. Mercola. He summarizes how research in the last couple years shows, “Fluoridation poses an unreasonable risk and hazard to all, but to fetuses and infants in particular.” With its effects on the human pineal gland, fluoride can also contribute to sleep disturbances, Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s. Fluoridation of our water also poses a hazard to the environment, summarized by the International Academy of Oral Medicine & Toxicology, including bee die-off, and jeopardizing the health of salmon as well as orcas. Brian supports eliminating fluoride from our water supply.
GMOs: While it has taken years for this research to emerge on the harmful effects of fluoridated water, we have less history with genetically-modified organisms (GMO). To protect the orca population, bees, the land, and ourselves, proper risk assessments are essential. Brian supports ensuring our food is safe and that the environment is protected.
Of about 10,000 respondents to a Washington State Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) survey, nearly 60% said “No” to mandatory comprehensive sex education (CSE). The incumbent voted Yea for CSE and it passed. Unfortunately, without checks and balances in the bill, curriculum approved by OSPI is not comprehensive or educational; it is incomplete and opens the door to child abuse. It is incomplete because it omits education on the harmful consequences of early sexual activity. Despite the opt-out clause, even if a child does not participate in the scheduled CSE class time, they would still certainly be immersed in the culture created by the content and exposed to questions or comments made by their classmates at other times. Though on its face the text of the bill may appear benign, specific concerns exist with the curriculum itself. Brian supports repeal of CSE. Reject Ref-90.